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As things stand, any country interested in new-build heavy military transport aircraft has to turn to China and Russia for the Y-20 and Il-76MD-90A, respectively. To state the obvious, much of the total addressable market in this important but rather niche market segment is off-limits to Chinese and Russian vendors. In this market segment, as with so many others, China and Russia will be competing for sales and essentially cannibalizing one another’s potential export markets. Whereas a country like Algeria could previously be expected to order new-build Russian Il-76 airframes, Algeria now has the option of instead ordering the Chinese Y-20 aircraft. With the total addressable market for Chinese and Russian vendors being quite small to begin with, competition for sales to the Algerias of the world is unwelcome to Russia, although Moscow benefits from China’s adversarial relations with several countries, above all India but also smaller potential customers such as Vietnam, for whom there is no substitute to the Il-76MD-90A.
The countries holding the proverbial short end of the stick as a result of the end of Boeing C-17 production in 2015 are primarily the United States and NATO member states, as well as several non-NATO allies of the United States, such as Australia. If and when the United States funds the development and production of a new heavy military transport aircraft, or perhaps a restart of (updated) C-17 production, the total addressable market is likely to shrink beyond the list of countries that will not order a Chinese or Russian offering. Large numbers of Soviet-built Il-76 aircraft, whether possessed by state/military or civilian operators, will have to be replaced over the coming years, including for the important civilian ramp-equipped oversized air cargo market. The Russian Il-76MD-90A and Chinese Y-20 are likely to capture considerable market share before an American and/or European vendor enters this market segment.