Divining The Intended Targets Of The Iranian Ballistic Missiles Launched Against Al-Udeid Airbase
๐ฎ๐ท ๐ถ๐ฆ ๐บ๐ธ | Commentary | originally posted on X
Commentary-themed posts are intended to broach or highlight a specific issue, not limited to recent and ongoing events. These posts will typically be much shorter and less detailed than analysis-themed posts.
Note: The following text was originally posted on my ๐/Twitter account. The original post may be expanded upon and edited for grammar and style in this here post. Link
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/02/01/iran-missiles-persian-gulf-trump-military-buildup/
Why do many seem to think that Iran's 23 June 2025 retaliatory strike against American forces at al-Udeid airbase was a "symbolic barrage?" As best as I can tell through publicly available information, Iran launched a total of fourteen ballistic missiles against American forces in Qatar, at least one of which impacted near a very large American satellite communications antenna. What were the intended target(s)โthe discrete aim points/coordinates of the intended point of impactโfor the thirteen other ballistic missiles that Iran launched? Without knowing the answer to this question, on what basis can anyone operating with publicly available information confidently claim that Iran only launched a "symbolic barrage"? Is this an inherently problematic post hoc outcomes-based determination?
To be clear, I don't know what the intended targets of the fourteen Iranian ballistic missiles were on 23 June 2025, and I will go so far as to say that there exists a low but nevertheless non-zero probability that the observed impact near the American satellite communications antenna may reflect chance/luck. Note that we do not know what type(s) of ballistic missiles Iran launched, why one of the fourteen Iranian ballistic missiles ended up as a leaker that by definition evaded American and Qatari Patriot ballistic missile defence interceptors, and, among many other things, whether any qualitative variance in the types of Iranian ballistic missiles employed explains why there was only one observed impact.
Perhaps all fourteen ballistic missiles launched by Iran were aimed at the American satellite communications antenna. Perhaps the thirteen other Iranian ballistic missiles were aimed at other, potentially more consequential and less "symbolic" targets. I do not know, and I imagine that most of the people who are calling Iran's 23 June 2025 retaliatory strike "symbolic" don't know either. If nothing else, it is fair to say that greater intellectual humility and analytical rigour are in order. Explicating what we do not know and the uncertainties of what we think we know is a very good place to start.