Extensions: Starlink, LEO SATCOM, And The Future Of The India-Pakistan Military Balance

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This post is an extension of material that has appeared in another newsletter/section and other parts of my website more generally. While my newsletters/sections are primarily categorized by region—you can either subscribe to specific newsletters/sections or subscribe to the entire website/all of my writings—many posts can be readily placed in multiple newsletters/sections—but only appear in one newsletter/section given how the Substack platform is configured—and may be highly relevant to readers who are primarily interested in other parts of the world. Posts dealing with ongoing conflicts or advances in military technology, for example, may highlight developments and dynamics that may be be of consequence to other countries. Similarly, posts that deal with the military capabilities of one country may be relevant to readers who are primarily interested in the military capabilities of other countries. My Extensions themed posts will be used to highlight content that I think subscribers of other newsletters/sections may find interesting. I hope that my Extensions themed posts help rationalize my peculiar comparativist analytical approach, one that results in my website covering a very wide range of military-related topics and much of the world.

In a recent post, I addressed some of the military implications of the increasing availability of Starlink’s low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communication (SATCOM) service across the Middle East. Commercial LEO SATCOM providers like Starlink offer low-latency and high-bandwidth satellite internet service to users located in essentially any part of the coverage area, which is determined not by technology but by the ability of individual governments to regulate the use of radio frequencies on and above their territory under the provisions of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). While LEO SATCOM can be used to access the internet, it can also be used as a datalink for military purposes. LEO SATCOM can be used to:

• Remotely pilot uncrewed systems, including uncrewed aircraft.

• Access the real-time feed of the sensors carried by uncrewed systems.

• Provide uncrewed systems with accurate and reliable positioning data as an alternative to Global Positioning System (GPS) and other global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) more generally.

• Remotely activate pre-positioned munitions and other forms of military equipment more generally.

• Support the operations of adversary special forces, intelligence operators, and local collaborators more generally.

The two countries that were the focus of my recent post, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have not yet granted Starlink approval to offer commercial satellite internet service in and above their territory. Two other countries that have also not yet granted Starlink regulatory approval are India and Pakistan, a very significant fact in itself, given the two countries’ combined population of over 1.7 billion and the quite low internet penetration rate across South Asia. While LEO SATCOM has clear-cut benefits for the economies of India and Pakistan and the lives of their inhabitants, it also has the inherent potential of substantially enhancing adversary military capabilities.

All things considered, LEO SATCOM-enabled internet service is likely to be a key part of the telecommunications infrastructure of all countries going forward. However much some countries around the world may dislike the fact that Starlink is an American company with close ties to the American government, the military implications of commercially available LEO SATCOM do not, for the most part, vary much with the country in which a commercial satellite internet provider is based. For India, the military implications of an American-owned commercial satellite internet service are little different than the military implications of an Indian-owned commercial satellite internet service or even a Chinese-owned commercial satellite internet service. Much the same can be said of Pakistan. As a result, LEO SATCOM is likely to reshape the India-Pakistan military balance at some point in the future.

To be clear, the potential threat posed by the availability of Starlink and LEO SATCOM more generally to India and Pakistan should not be exaggerated and should be viewed in its proper context. As with most areas of government policy, Indian and Pakistani decision-makers face trade-offs and may come to the conclusion that the benefits of commercially available low-latency and high-bandwidth satellite internet outweigh the costs and risks to their countries. Even so, observers must be mindful that these costs and risks are of the non-zero variety.

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If you find this topic interesting, consider reading my post dealing with the increasing availability of Starlink’s satellite internet service across the Middle East: