Iskander-M Launchers In Kaliningrad Participate In Zapad-2025 But Not The Russia-Ukraine War

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Note: The following text was originally posted on my X/Twitter account.

Russia's use of Iskander-M ballistic missile launchers garrisoned in Kaliningrad to undertake simulated "electronic launches" (see the attached videos) as part of the Zapad-2025 bilateral military exercise with Belarus should serve as a reminder that Russia has so far forgone launching Iskander-M ballistic missiles against Ukraine from launch positions in Kaliningrad despite the advantageous launch geometry the Russian exclave offers. While the Iskander-M is limited in terms of maximum range, it can be used to target parts of western Ukraine from Kaliningrad. A ballistic missile with a maximum range of around 700 kilometers is required to reach Kyiv.

Ukraine is reliant on sectored ballistic missile defence systems—systems that have fire control/engagement radars that are restricted to a 120° field of view— in the form of the American Patriot system and, to a lesser degree (when faced with a simultaneous multi-axis ballistic missile attack), the French-Italian SAMP/T system. Given the limited maximum range of the Iskander-M, Russia has been unable to take full advantage of what its geography offers in terms of potential launch geometries against Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine that are home to a high concentration of potential high-value targets. The 9-А-7660 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile can somewhat compensate for the limited launch geometries possible with the existing versions of the Iskander-M, but appears to have its own limitations and is, in any event, of limited utility given the small numbers of serviceable MiG-31K launch platforms.