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The Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) has long encountered a problem: what to do if and when Chinese strikes against Taiwanese airbases and airports result in a situation in which airborne ROCAF aircraft have nowhere to land. Several auxiliary runways built on specific—and readily identifiable via satellite imagery—locations around the island of Taiwan constitute a partial solution alongside the establishment of rapid runway repair capabilities. These allow ROCAF aircraft to land, rearm, and refuel—with performance and maximum take-off weight restrictions—and, more to the point, help “save” aircraft that would otherwise flame out upon fuel exhaustion and crash. There is, however, another plausible way for Taiwan to go about this: divert aircraft to the Philippines, specifically, to airports and airbases on Luzon.
A distance of some 350 kilometers separates southern Taiwan from northern Luzon, and some 800 kilometres separates southern Taiwan from Manila. The Philippines’ airport and airbase infrastructure is far from ideal, and the entirety of Luzon falls within 1200 kilometers of China and is, as such, well within the reach of Chinese strike capabilities, but there is a case to be made that Taiwanese aircraft will be far more effective when operating from airbases outside the island of Taiwan. Such a development is, of course, diplomatically fraught, and that is a gross understatement. Tense though China-Philippines ties may be, Manila is unlikely to undertake such a dramatic escalation by agreeing to such measures, especially in peacetime. For Taiwan, however, this may be one of the best ways to ensure the future viability of the ROCAF.
As things stand, there are simply too many Taiwanese aircraft at airbases that are too close to China and have too few runways available to them. Most Japanese airports and airbases are too far (even if Tokyo were to agree to such an approach), and those on the Ryukyu Islands Chain are not a viable option. Airports and airbases in the Philippines can constitute a better alternative, but diplomatic realities will likely mean that the ROCAF will remain “trapped” on Taiwan Island, although wartime realities may mean that some ROCAF aircraft end up in the Philippines with or without an arrangement with Manila made in peacetime.