Russian Bomber Patrol In Sea of Japan Highlights Enduring Distractions Amid Russia-Ukraine War
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Note: The following text was originally posted on my X/Twitter account.
One of the most peculiar and underappreciated aspects of the Russia-Ukraine War is the extent to which the Russian military—and Russian military industry more generally—continues to be occupied—"distracted"—by other pursuits that often have little, if anything, to do with the war effort and sometimes come at the direct expense of the war effort.
One example of such dynamics is Russia's persistent use of its finite—and now significantly smaller in the aftermath of Ukraine's 1 June 2025 Operation Spiderweb—bomber force to undertake rather pointless patrols in the Sea of Japan and the Barents Sea when these scarce and difficult to replace aircraft with finite flight hours are best preserved for use in attacks against Ukraine—and NATO more generally in the aftermath of this conflict—with air-launched cruise missiles (pending the availability of such cruise missiles, which Ukrainian military intelligence suggests are typically launched not long after completed specimens leave the factory). While flights that are far removed from the Russia-Ukraine War can, in principle, bolster Russia's coercive and deterrent capacity vis-a-vis other countries, these are best understood as public relations stunts of very limited military value. That is, serious analysts and officials in Tokyo and elsewhere have little cause for concern, irrespective of how much media attention and public angst result from these brief patrols by Russian bomber aircraft.
While Moscow's motivations are likely to be primarily shaped by a longstanding desire to display Russian military power in a very public manner—such flights have become a regular occurrence over the past fifteen or so years—it is nevertheless important to recognize that Russian bomber crews must undertake training sorties somewhere even in the context of an ongoing high intensity conflict in which bomber aircraft combat sorties are in high demand. Although there is a case to be made for "hitting two birds with one stone"—turning an otherwise mundane training flight into a public relations opportunity in the Sea of Japan, the Tu-95 bombers involved in this particular flight publicized by the Russian Ministry of Defence were escorted for at least part of the reported six hour flight duration by Russian Su-35 and Su-30 fighter aircraft. Perhaps the pilots of these Russian fighter aircraft were also multitasking in participating in a public relations stunt while also clocking in their required training sorties/flight hours. In any event, the central point stands that a significant portion of Russian military capabilities remain unallocated toward the Russia-Ukraine War on any given day.