Note: The following text was originally posted on my X/Twitter account.
Saab is pitching its Gripen fighter aircraft and Erieye AEW&C aircraft (with the Erieye radar installed on used/out of production Saab 2000 airframes) for the Philippine Air Force's multi-role combat aircraft requirement. While commentary tends to engage in head-to-head comparisons of Chinese and American military and military-technological capabilities, one of the most consequential dynamics at play in the region over the past ten or so years is that China is racing far ahead of its neighbours, even if it remains second place to the United States in many important capability and technology areas. The China-Philippine military balance offers an excellent example of this dynamic. Suppose that the Philippines places an order for 30 or so new fighter aircraft and, say, 3-4 AEW&C aircraft with deliveries of said equipment set to conclude by the early 2030s. On paper and in purely monadic terms, the Philippines will significantly enhance its military capabilities vis-a-vis China, but the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is in a very good position to allocate a few more munitions, a few more aircraft sorties, and so forth to neutralize the Philippine Air Force's new fighter and AEW&C aircraft in the air and on the ground. Manila has very limited resources to allocate—over a multi-year timeframe—to address a very long list of pressing military shortcomings. The Philippines is not in the market for the likes of the American F-35 fighter aircraft and cannot afford the full suite of capabilities—including extensive air defence systems and ballistic missile defence systems—that are required to withstand a concerted Chinese attempt at rapidly neutralizing the Philippines—and critical infrastructure in the Philippines that will be vital to the American war effort against China—in time of war. To be clear, none of this is to say that countries like the Philippines should simply play dead or that there are no advantages to having new fighter aircraft and AEW&C aircraft in scenarios short of an all-out war. It is nevertheless important to set realistic expectations as net gains in fielded military capabilities vis-a-vis a fast modernizing Chinese military.