Shahed-136/Geran-2/Garpiya Attack In Kharkiv Highlights Limited Destructive Effects, Suboptimal Fusing

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Note: The following text was originally posted on my X/Twitter account.

The first video, which was recorded earlier today, shows a Russian Shahed-136/Geran-2/Garpiya propeller-driven fixed-wing strike drone undertaking a terminal dive and impacting what I understand to be a university building near central Kharkiv. The building is located some 35 kilometers from the international border/frontline. The first video highlights one of the limitations of the Shahed-136/Geran-2/Garpiya: it is equipped with a warhead that is fused to detonate upon impact. In many situations, it is preferable to have the warhead detonate after penetrating a structure. The second video shows the aftermath of this incident. Note how the damage is, for the most part, restricted to the upper level of this fairly robust brick-built building. Note also the presence of intact glass windows on the two lower floors. The third video offers a glimpse of some of the internal damage.

Shahed-136/Geran-2/Garpiya strike drones are equipped with a 50-kilogram class warhead in their baseline configuration or a 90-kilogram class warhead in a reduced-range configuration that is better suited to the specific military-geographical context of the Russia-Ukraine War. The Russian-built Garpiya, which is built at a different production line than the Russian-built Geran-2 and is a derivative of the underlying Iranian Shahed-136 design, has recently been seen in a configuration featuring two 50-kilogram warheads. All else being equal, a larger and heavier warhead will increase the destructive radius and destructive effects of a munition, but fusing also matters, as well as weaponeering more generally. Most of the munitions used by both sides in the Russia-Ukraine War feature fairly primitive fusing, a dynamic that typically reduces the realized destructive effects even when an accurate hit is registered on the intended target.