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Russia’s primarily Soviet-built bomber force has been not only heavily attrited but also heavily taxed over the course of the Russia-Ukraine War. These elderly aircraft are burning through flight hours at a time when Russian industry is poorly positioned to further extend the service lives of these aircraft, let alone reestablish long-dormant production lines, a dynamic attested with the Tu-160M2. Russia does, however, have another option, at least with respect to launching conventionally armed cruise missiles against Ukraine and NATO.
While the Russian bomber force has a so-called strategic nuclear delivery role (with respect to the Tu-95 and Tu-160 fleets, but not the Tu-22M fleet), Russian bombers primarily function as launch platforms for conventionally armed cruise missiles of the Kh-101 family, which have been heavily used against Ukraine. Russia is now also building and employing a series of new lower-cost and lower payload-range cruise missiles, some of which are air-launched designs. These include the Banderol, Geran-5, and S-71K.
With the Il-76MD-90A heavy military transport aircraft in active production, Russia may come to deploy these cruise missiles or derivatives thereof as air-launched cruise missiles via an air-dropped palletized launch mechanism in a manner similar to the American Rapid Dragon and FAMM-P efforts. The Kh-101 itself may be adapted for launch through such a method, not least on account of how inefficient the operating concept for Russian bombers is vis-a-vis Ukraine. An air-dropped palletized launch mechanism will amount to a path through which Russia can quickly reconstitute its bomber force without making heavy investments toward truly reconstituting the Tu-160M2 production line or fully developing and manufacturing the long-expected next-generation PAK DA. While there is a case to be made that the massed use of air-launched cruise missiles is inefficient for Russia in a post-INF Treaty world and in the absence of stronger Russian offensive air-to-air combat capabilities vis-a-vis NATO, the Russian Aerospace Force appears intent on retaining this capability set.