Russia's Limited Capacity To Retaliate Via Proxy Serves As Cautionary Tale For China In A Cross-Strait Conflict

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Analytical Extensions

Analytical extensions-themed posts expand on material that has appeared in another newsletter/section and other parts of this website more generally.

In a recent post, I briefly discussed Russia’s limited ability to engage in a proxy conflict against the United States and European countries in response to and in retaliation for their military support for Ukraine. As I explained in said post, Russia is not, however, without options, given reports of Russian technical support and material assistance to North Korea in the interrelated areas of (nuclear-armed) intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology and nuclear-powered submarine technology. While such reported Russian technical support and material assistance to North Korea may not result in the injury or death of any American citizens, including American military personnel, it does inflict very grave long-term negative military effects on the United States.

While Limited In Terms Of Proxies Through Which To Retaliate, Russia Is Not Toothless When It Comes To A Proxy Conflict With America

China will have to deter foreign military intervention in a major conflict over the political fate of Taiwan. While observers of Chinese military affairs are familiar with the notion of Chinese “counter-intervention capabilities,” raising the projected cost of military intervention by the United States and, to a lesser degree, Japan, on the side of Taiwan is a quite narrow conception of what deterring military intervention in a major conflict over the political fate of Taiwan is likely to entail. Simply stated, China will likely require a deep and diverse policy toolbox—not simply military capabilities of one sort or another—to deter foreign intervention on the part of other countries, such as Australia, India, and even South Korea, and, more generally, keep likely neutrals, such as Southeast Asian countries and European countries, in check. Deterring foreign intervention is not only something that China will have to do on the first day of a war, but over the weeks, months, and, quite possibly, years that a major conflict over the political fate of Taiwan may well play out.