Will China Deploy A Very Long-Range Low-Payload Land-Attack Cruise Missile?
🇨🇳 Analytical Extensions
Analytical extensions-themed posts expand on material that has appeared in another newsletter/section and other parts of this website more generally.
The Ukrainian military news website Militarnyi recently disclosed the existence of leaked documents indicating that Russia has ordered 32 new Izdeliye-506 nuclear-armed air-launched cruise missiles for delivery in the 2024-2026 timeframe. According to Russian state media, the subsonic nuclear-armed Izdeliye-506, which is also known as the Kh-BD, has a maximum range of over 6000 kilometers, although this remains to be confirmed. Beyond its implications for prospective Chinese nuclear-armed subsonic land-attack cruise missiles for use against targets in North America, the Kh-BD constitutes an example of the type of strike munition that China may pursue to attack very distant targets with conventional high explosive warheads.
One the the greatest challenges that the Chinese military is likely to face in a major war involving the United States is the difficulty of attacking very distant targets located on islands across the Pacific Ocean, as well as targets in Australia. All else being equal, conventionally-armed strike munitions become prohibitively expensive for use against most targets located several thousands of kilometers away, not least when China will likely need to target hundreds, if not thousands, of discrete aim points. Although it is likely to have a unit cost of several million dollars, a very long-range subsonic land-attack cruise missile in the vein of the Russian air-launched Kh-BD can be used to attack targets over a distance of 4000-6000 kilometers. There is, however, a major trade-off: such a land-attack cruise missile will have a payload-range design optimization that results in a quite small conventional high explosive warhead of around 100 kilograms.
Subsonic land-attack cruise missiles were originally developed and deployed by the United States and the Soviet Union as a means of delivering nuclear warheads over long distances. When adapted for the purposes of delivering conventional high explosive warheads, such land-attack cruise missiles, which were powered by quite fuel-efficient and high power density turbofan engines, were typically used to deliver a 400-500 kilogram warhead over a distance of 1500 or so kilometers. The considerably lower maximum range of a conventionally-armed version of a nuclear-armed cruise missile is reflective of the low weight of the nuclear warheads installed on cruise missiles, which typically weigh around 100 kilograms. The claimed maximum range of 6500 kilometers for the Russian Kh-BD is reflective of this; the maximum range will be much lower should a conventionally-armed version of the Kh-BD be deployed with a fairly standard 400-500 kilogram high explosive warhead. Ultimately, designers select a payload-range optimization, and there is some scope to trade payload for range and vice versa, which is to trade some amount of high explosives for a larger amount of fuel.
While a hypothetical Chinese conventionally-armed very long range subsonic land-attack cruise missile in the vein of the Russian Kh-BD will, all else being equal, have a lower destructive radius and less destructive effects than a cruise missile equipped with a fairly standard 400-500 kilogram high explosive warhead, such a strike munition will allow China to attack very distant targets across the Pacific and in Australia. Provided that the munition in which it is installed exhibits high precision and accuracy, a 100-kilogram high explosive warhead and even a 50-kilogram high exposive warhead are nothing to dismiss. These can be effectively employed against, among other things, air search radars, satellite ground stations, fuel storage tanks, port cranes, non-hardened munitions stores, as well as hydrocarbon extraction, processing, and maritime transport infrastructure.
As Iran and, later on, both Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated by following the conceptually innovative Iranian approach, a large quantity of fairly inexpensive low payload strike munitions can have a quality all of its own. This is particularly true in the case of China and very distant targets across the Pacific Ocean and across Australia, which are otherwise very difficult, but not impossible, to attack. A hypothetical Chinese conventionally-armed very long-range land-attack cruise missile in the vein of the Russian Kh-BD will not be effective against all target types and is unlikely to independently bring about Chinese victory in a major war. It will, however, enable China to attack many disparate and discrete aim points that would otherwise likely avoid physical damage in a major war.
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